But other international organizations with access to Chinese data have published similar results. For example, the World Health Organization found that China suffered more deaths from water-related pollutants and fewer from bad air, but agreed with the World Bank that the total death toll had reached 750,000 a year. In comparison, 4,700 people died last year in China’s notoriously unsafe mines, and 89,000 people were killed in road accidents, the highest number of automobile-related deaths in the world. The Ministry of Health estimates that cigarette smoking takes a million Chinese lives each year.
但其他可获得中国数据的国际组织发布了类似的结果。例如，世界卫生组织发现中国死于水污染的人数较世行版本高，而空气污染造成死亡较低，但他们也同意世行的每年总死亡数达75万人的结论。相比较而言，去年中国因其臭名昭著的不安全煤矿死亡4700人，交通事故死亡89000人（世界上交通事故死亡最多的国家）。卫生部估计吸烟造成每年100万人死亡。
Studies of Chinese environmental health mostly use statistical models developed in the United States and Europe and apply them to China, which has done little long-term research on the matter domestically. The results are more like plausible suppositions than conclusive findings.
中国环境健康的研究几乎全部使用在美国和欧洲开发的模型，把它们直接套用到中国，在这一领域中国几乎没有长期的国内研究。这样得到的结果更像是看上去有道理的推测而不是结论性的发现。
But Chinese experts say that, if anything, the Western models probably understate the problems.
但是中国专家认为，就算有错误，西方的模型也只会低估中国问题。
“China’s pollution is worse, the density of its population is greater and people do not protect themselves as well,” said Jin Yinlong, the director general of the Institute for Environmental Health and Related Product Safety in Beijing. “So the studies are not definitive. My assumption is that they will turn out to be conservative.”
“中国的污染(比西方)更严重，人口密度更大，人们完全不保护他们自己”Jin Yinlong，北京环境卫生和相关产品安全研究所所长说“这项研究不是决定性的，我的猜测是最终会证明它们的结论还是太保守了”。
Growth Run Amok
霸道的增长
As gloomy as China’s pollution picture looks today, it is set to get significantly worse, because China has come to rely mainly on energy-intensive heavy industry and urbanization to fuel economic growth. In 2000, a team of economists and energy specialists at the Development Research Center, part of the State Council, set out to gauge how much energy China would need over the ensuing 20 years to achieve the leadership’s goal of quadrupling the size of the economy.
中国的污染图景已然灰暗无光，然而它却将朝更糟的方向发展，因为中国已经到了主要依赖高能源消耗重工业和城市化助燃经济增长的阶段。2000年，一组国务院发展研究中心的经济学家和能源专家，开始计算今后20年为达到领导层的经济总量4倍增长目标所需的能源消耗。
They based their projections on China’s experience during the first 20 years of economic reform, from 1980 to 2000. In that period, China relied mainly on light industry and small-scale private enterprise to spur growth. It made big improvements in energy efficiency even as the economy expanded rapidly. Gross domestic product quadrupled, while energy use only doubled.
他们的课题是基于中国经济改革前20年从1980到2000的经验。在那期间，中国主要依靠轻工业和小型私有企业来刺激增长。这使其即使在经济迅速扩张的同时能源利用效率大为增加。国内生产总量增长为原来的4倍，但能源消耗只增长为2倍。
The team projected that such efficiency gains would probably continue. But the experts also offered what they called a worst-case situation in which the most energy-hungry parts of the economy grew faster and efficiency gains fell short.
该小组的规划认为这种效率提升将继续下去。但是专家们同时也提出了一种最坏的情况即能源利用效率的增长落后于经济中的高耗能产业发展速度。
That worst-case situation now looks wildly optimistic. Last year, China burned the energy equivalent of 2.7 billion tons of coal, three-quarters of what the experts had said would be the maximum required in 2020. To put it another way, China now seems likely to need as much energy in 2010 as it thought it would need in 2020 under the most pessimistic assumptions.
那种最坏的情况现在看来还是太乐观了。去年中国烧掉了相当于专家估计的2020年最大需求量3/4的27亿吨煤炭。根据最悲观的估计，现在看来中国甚至只要到2010年能源消耗就可达到原以为2020才会需要的数量。
“No one really knew what was driving the economy, which is why the predictions were so wrong,” said Yang Fuqiang, a former Chinese energy planner who is now the chief China representative of the Energy Foundation, an American group that supports energy-related research. “What I fear is that the trend is now basically irreversible.”
“没人知道是什么真正的在驱动经济发展，这就是以前的估算错误如此之大的原因”Yang Fuqing，一位中国的前能源计划官员现任某美国能源基金会驻中国首席代表说。
The ravenous appetite for fossil fuels traces partly to an economic stimulus program in 1997. The leadership, worried that China’s economy would fall into a steep recession as its East Asian neighbors had, provided generous state financing and tax incentives to support industrialization on a grand scale.
现在对化石燃料的贪婪需求部分的源于一项始于1997的经济刺激计划。领导层担心中国会同它的东亚邻国一样陷入急剧的经济萧条之中，于是向国内的工业化进程提供了庞大而慷慨的国家财政和税收鼓励政策。
It worked well, possibly too well. In 1996, China and the United States each accounted for 13 percent of global steel production. By 2005, the United States share had dropped to 8 percent, while China’s share had risen to 35 percent, according to a study by Daniel H. Rosen and Trevor Houser of China Strategic Advisory, a group that analyzes the Chinese economy.
这一政策起到了很好的效果，可能是好过了头。在1996年，中国和美国各占据世界钢铁产量的13%。可是到2005年，美国的产量降到了8%，而中国的产量升至35%，根据一项Daniel H. Rosen and Trevor中国战略咨询中心（一个中国经济分析机构）的研究显示。
Similarly, China now makes half of the world’s cement and flat glass, and about a third of its aluminum. In 2006, China overtook Japan as the second-largest producer of cars and trucks after the United States.
类似的，中国现在生产了世界水泥和平板玻璃总量的一半，世界铝产量的1/3。2006年，中国超过日本成为仅次于美国的世界第二大汽车和卡车生产国。
Its energy needs are compounded because even some of its newest heavy industry plants do not operate as efficiently, or control pollution as effectively, as factories in other parts of the world, a recent World Bank report said.
最近的世行报告说中国的能源短缺原因复杂，因为在中国即便最新式的重工业工厂也不能如其他国家的一样高效的运转,一样有效的控制污染。
Chinese steel makers, on average, use one-fifth more energy per ton than the international average. Cement manufacturers need 45 percent more power, and ethylene producers need 70 percent more than producers elsewhere, the World Bank says.
中国的钢铁生产企业每吨产量比国际平均水平多消耗1/5的能量。水泥制造商和乙烯生产厂则分别需要比国际同行多45%和70%的能量，世界银行说。
China’s aluminum industry alone consumes as much energy as the country’s commercial sector — all the hotels, restaurants, banks and shopping malls combined, Mr. Rosen and Mr. Houser reported.
仅中国的电解铝工业一项耗能就和该国商业部门相当——包括所有的酒店，旅馆和商场的总合，Mr. Rosen and Mr. Houser说。
Moreover, the boom is not limited to heavy industry. Each year for the past few years, China has built about 7.5 billion square feet of commercial and residential space, more than the combined floor space of all the malls and strip malls in the United States, according to data collected by the United States Energy Information Administration.
更严重的是，这种（能耗）暴涨并非只限于重工业。过去的数年中，中国每年都要建造约75亿平方英尺的商业和住宅空间，这比美国所有商场和廉价商店所有楼层面积加起来还要多，据美国国家能源信息局的数据。
Chinese buildings rarely have thermal insulation. They require, on average, twice as much energy to heat and cool as those in similar climates in the United States and Europe, according to the World Bank. A vast majority of new buildings — 95 percent, the bank says — do not meet China’s own codes for energy efficiency.
中国的建筑极少采用隔热设计。它们需要用于采暖和制冷的能量两倍于美国和欧洲的同类气候地区建筑，世行说，其新造建筑的绝大部分——95%——达不到中国自己的能效标准。
All these new buildings require China to build power plants, which it has been doing prodigiously. In 2005 alone, China added 66 gigawatts of electricity to its power grid, about as much power as Britain generates in a year. Last year, it added an additional 102 gigawatts, as much as France.
这些新建筑需要中国建造更多的发电站，而这本已在大规模进行中。仅2005年，中国在其电网中新增了66亿千瓦的电力，约为英国每年发电的总量。去年，它又增加了102亿千瓦，相当于整个法国发电量。
That increase has come almost entirely from small- and medium-size coal-fired power plants that were built quickly and inexpensively. Only a few of them use modern, combined-cycle turbines, which increase efficiency, said Noureddine Berrah, an energy expert at the World Bank. He said Beijing had so far declined to use the most advanced type of combined-cycle turbines despite having completed a successful pilot project nearly a decade ago.
这些新增发电量几乎全部来自可以很快建成且成本较低的中小型煤火力发电厂。只有其中的小部分发电厂使用了能提高效率的现代联合循环燃气涡轮机，Noureddine Berrah,世行一位能源专家说，北京市在十年前完成了一次项目试运行后至今仍拒绝使用最先进的联合循环燃气涡轮技术。
While over the long term, combined-cycle plants save money and reduce pollution, Mr. Berrah said, they cost more — and take longer — to build. For that reason, he said, central and provincial government officials prefer older technology.
Mr. Berrah 说尽管在长期看来联合循环燃气涡轮机可以节省开支降低污染，但它们的初期建造成本更大，建设周期更长。因此，中央和地方官员更愿意采用陈旧的技术。
“China is making decisions today that will affect its energy use for the next 30 or 40 years,” he said. “Unfortunately, in some parts of the government the thinking is much more shortsighted.”
“中国现在做出的决定回影响它今后30到40年的能源使用，”他说“不幸的是，在一些政府部门，它们的目光太短浅了。”
The Politics of Pollution
污染的政治账
Since Hu Jintao became the Communist Party chief in 2002 and Wen Jiabao became prime minister the next spring, China’s leadership has struck consistent themes. The economy must grow at a more sustainable, less bubbly pace. Environmental abuse has reached intolerable levels. Officials who ignore these principles will be called to account.
自从2002年胡锦涛成为共产党的总书记，次年春温家宝成为总理以来，中国的领导层更改了指导思想。（认为）经济必须以一种更具可持续性更少泡沫的方式发展。环境破坏已近不可容忍的程度。忽视这一新的原则的官员们将被问责。
Five years later, it seems clear that these senior leaders are either too timid to enforce their orders, or the fast-growth political culture they preside over is too entrenched to heed them.
5年后看来，很明显要么是这些高层对严格执行它们的政令缩手缩脚，要么是盲目追求经济高速发展的官场文化过于根深蒂固不听从他们的指挥。
In the second quarter of this year, the economy expanded at a neck-snapping pace of 11.9 percent, its fastest in a decade. State-driven investment projects, state-backed heavy industry and a thriving export sector led the way. China burned 18 percent more coal than it did the year before.
今年第二季度，经济增长速度达到令人屏息惊愕的11.9%，也是十年来的最高速度。国家主导的投资项目，国家支持的重工业和繁荣的出口部门一同引领了这一增长势头。中国已烧掉了比去年总消费量还多18%的煤炭。
China’s authoritarian system has repeatedly proved its ability to suppress political threats to Communist Party rule. But its failure to realize its avowed goals of balancing economic growth and environmental protection is a sign that the country’s environmental problems are at least partly systemic, many experts and some government officials say. China cannot go green, in other words, without political change.
中国的统治集团已经反复证明了它能够压制住任何挑战共产党统治的政治威胁。但它们没能实现其公开宣称的在经济发展和环境保护之间取得平衡这一事实说明，该国的环境问题至少部分是体制性的缺陷造成的，很多专家和政府官员这样承认。在政治改革之前，中国别想变回青山绿水。
In their efforts to free China of its socialist shackles in the 1980s and early 90s, Deng and his supporters gave lower-level officials the leeway, and the obligation, to increase economic growth.
在1980年到90年代早期，邓和他的支持者为将中国从社会主义的枷锁中解脱出来发展经济，给予了下层官员一定的自由度和相应的责任。
Local party bosses gained broad powers over state bank lending, taxes, regulation and land use. In return, the party leadership graded them, first and foremost, on how much they expanded the economy in their domains.
地方上党的头目得到了干预国有银行贷款，管理土地使用的广泛权力。相对应地，党的领导上层第一次以发展本地区经济的程度来考核它们。
To judge by its original goals — stimulating the economy, creating jobs and keeping the Communist Party in power — the system Deng put in place has few equals. But his approach eroded Beijing’s ability to fine-tune the economy. Today, a culture of collusion between government and business has made all but the most pro-growth government policies hard to enforce.
从其原本目的——刺激经济，创造就业，保住政权——来说，邓开创的这一系统是无可比拟的。但他的方式侵蚀了北京对经济的微观调节能力。今天这种官商勾结的制度温床已使除狂热的增长政策以外的任何政策难以实施。
“The main reason behind the continued deterioration of the environment is a mistaken view of what counts as political achievement,” said Pan Yue, the deputy minister of the State Environmental Protection Administration. “The crazy expansion of high-polluting, high-energy industries has spawned special interests. Protected by local governments, some businesses treat the natural resources that belong to all the people as their own private property.”
“潜藏在持续的环境恶化背后的原因是一种畸形的政绩评价观，”Pan Yue国家环保总局副局长说“高污染高耗能企业的疯狂扩张滋生了特殊的利益集团。它们收地方政府保护，将名义上为全体人民所有的自然资源视为自己的私有财产。”
Mr. Hu has tried to change the system. In an internal address in 2004, he endorsed “comprehensive environmental and economic accounting” — otherwise known as “Green G.D.P.” He said the “pioneering endeavor” would produce a new performance test for government and party officials that better reflected the leadership’s environmental priorities.
胡先生曾尝试改变现有体制。在2004年一次内部讲话中，他保证要引入“全面的环境和经济评价机制”——也被称为绿色GDP。他说这一“创举”将产生一种新的能够更好的体现领导层对环境问题重视程度的党政官员效绩考核制度。
The Green G.D.P. team sought to calculate the yearly damage to the environment and human health in each province. Their first report, released last year, estimated that pollution in 2004 cost just over 3 percent of the gross domestic product, meaning that the pollution-adjusted growth rate that year would drop to about 7 percent from 10 percent. Officials said at the time that their formula used low estimates of environmental damage to health and did not assess the impact on China’s ecology. They would produce a more decisive formula, they said, the next year.
绿色GDP工作组开始计算每个省的年度环境污染和居民健康损害。他们于去年发布的第一份报告，估计2004年污染造成的损失占GDP总量的3%，意味着考虑污染的当年增长率将从10%降至7%。官员们当时说他们的计算方法低估了环境污染对居民健康的危害，而且没有考虑对中国的生态环境造成的影响。他们将在明年提出更明确的计算方法。
That did not happen. Mr. Hu’s plan died amid intense squabbling, people involved in the effort said. The Green G.D.P. group’s second report, originally scheduled for release in March, never materialized.
可惜这又一次没能实现。胡先生的计划因遭遇猛烈的争议而夭折，参与此项目的人说。绿色GDP工作组的第二份报告原定于3月份公布，至今不了了之。
The official explanation was that the science behind the green index was immature. Wang Jinnan, the leading academic researcher on the Green G.D.P. team, said provincial leaders killed the project. “Officials do not like to be lined up and told how they are not meeting the leadership’s goals,” he said. “They found it difficult to accept this.”
官员们解释说那是因为计算绿色GDP背后的科学依据还不成熟，而该项目的研究者说各省的头目们谋杀了这一计划。“官僚们从不愿意排着队接受它们没有达到中央要求的批评，”他说“它们认为这是不能容忍的”
Conflicting Pressures
错综复杂的压力
Despite the demise of Green G.D.P., party leaders insist that they intend to restrain runaway energy use and emissions. The government last year mandated that the country use 20 percent less energy to achieve the same level of economic activity in 2010 compared with 2005. It also required that total emissions of mercury, sulfur dioxide and other pollutants decline by 10 percent in the same period.
尽管绿色GDP的闹剧寿终正寝，党的领导人依然坚持说他们本意为抑制能源消耗和污染气体排放的急速增长。去年政府下令要求该国2010年单位经济产值的能源消耗要比2005年减少20%。它们同时要求汞，二氧化硫和其他污染物的排放总量同期下降10%。
The program is a domestic imperative. But it has also become China’s main response to growing international pressure to combat global warming. Chinese leaders reject mandatory emissions caps, and they say the energy efficiency plan will slow growth in carbon dioxide emissions.
这一计划在国内成为一项迫切的政治任务。而在国外则成为中国应付全球变暖的国际压力的主要挡箭牌。中国领导人们拒绝接受温室气体排放的限额管制，他们说自己的能源利用效率计划会减慢二氧化碳排放的增长。
Even with the heavy pressure, though, the efficiency goals have been hard to achieve. In the first full year since the targets were set, emissions increased. Energy use for every dollar of economic output fell but by much less than the 4 percent interim goal.
即使是在政府强力推动下，能效目标也很难实现。从目标设定到现在的一整年里，排放还在增加。单位产出的能耗降低了但是幅度远小于4%的中期目标。
In a public relations sense, the party’s commitment to conservation seems steadfast. Mr. Hu shunned his usual coat and tie at a meeting of the Central Committee this summer. State news media said the temperature in the Great Hall of the People was set at a balmy 79 degrees Fahrenheit to save energy, and officials have encouraged others to set thermostats at the same level.
在公关层面上，党对于环境的承诺看似坚定不移。在今年夏天一次中共中央的会议上胡先生没有穿西服和领带。国家控制的新闻媒体说为了节能，人民大会堂的空调温度被调高到了79F（26摄氏度），官员们鼓励民众把空调也设到同样地温度。
By other measures, though, the leadership has moved slowly to address environmental and energy concerns.
尽管领导层已经缓慢的把环境和能源问题提上了议事日程。
The government rarely uses market-oriented incentives to reduce pollution. Officials have rejected proposals to introduce surcharges on electricity and coal to reflect the true cost to the environment. The state still controls the price of fuel oil, including gasoline, subsidizing the cost of driving.
政府却极少使用市场导向的激励机制来降低污染。官员们拒绝了征收电力和煤炭资源成本附加费来反映真实的环境代价的提议。该国仍然控制着燃油的价格，包括汽油，给驾车成本提供补贴。
Energy and environmental officials have little influence in the bureaucracy. The environmental agency still has only about 200 full-time employees, compared with 18,000 at the Environmental Protection Agency in the United States.
能源和环境官员在整个官僚体系中影响力微乎其微。环保总局只有约200人的全职雇员，而美国的环保局有18000人。
China has no Energy Ministry. The Energy Bureau of the National Development and Reform Commission, the country’s central planning agency, has 100 full-time staff members. The Energy Department of the United States has 110,000 employees.
中国没有能源部。国家发改委（该国的中央计划部门）的能源办公室只有100名全职雇员。而美国的能源部有110000雇员。
China does have an army of amateur regulators. Environmentalists expose pollution and press local government officials to enforce environmental laws. But private individuals and nongovernment organizations cannot cross the line between advocacy and political agitation without risking arrest.
中国没有一支志愿者组成的环保大军。环保人士揭露本地的污染真相要求地方政府加强环境执法。但个人和非政府组织不能越过宣传倡议和政治鼓动之间的界限，否则将有被逮捕的危险。
At least two leading environmental organizers have been prosecuted in recent weeks, and several others have received sharp warnings to tone down their criticism of local officials. One reason the authorities have cited: the need for social stability before the 2008 Olympics, once viewed as an opportunity for China to improve the environment.
最近几周已有至少2个环保组织遭到法办，另外的一些则收到严厉的警告，命令他们减低对地方官员的批评声调。当局最常用的理由便是：为了2008奥运会前保持社会稳定的需要，而这不久前还曾被看作是一次中国改进其环境状况的绝佳机会。
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